Investigation of western Elbe crossing and its impact on the Deutschlandtakt

A comprehensive feasibility study of the western Elbe crossing was conducted between November 2021 and December 2024 in the City of Hamburg. The goal of the study was to examine the operational, technical and economic feasibility of a new rail link west of the existing Elbe bridges. The study was conducted on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV) and was charged in particular with assessing the impact of such an infrastructure project on the target for Germany’s planned national integrated timetable, the Deutschlandtakt.

Project partners and aims

The project was run by a consortium led by Professor Carsten Gertz from Hamburg University of Technology’s Institute for Transport Planning and Logistics. Project partners included Tutech Innovation GmbH, OBERMEYER Infrastruktur GmbH & Co. KG and SMA und Partner AG. The project was supported by associate partners such as Intraplan Consult GmbH and TTS TRIMODE Transport Solutions GmbH.

The central question addressed by the study was whether and to what extent an additional Elbe crossing makes transport and operational sense in relation to the existing plans for the Deutschlandtakt. The focus here was on strengthening rail services in the Hamburg hub and tapping additional potential through a new western crossing.

Approach and results

As part of the feasibility study, technical and operational solutions for a western Elbe crossing were identified, evaluated and analysed with regard to their feasibility. The assessment was based on current traffic forecasts, which also form the basis of the Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan 2030 (BVWP 2030).

Relevant transport routes were analysed and rough variants examined for each mode of transport – long-distance, regional, suburban and freight. Two promising combination variants were analysed in depth: 

• Combination variant K1: Regional traffic on the route Hamburg-Harburg – western crossing – Hamburg-Altona north – Elmshorn, supplemented by appropriate long-distance links.

• Combination variant K2: Regional and suburban rail on the route Stade/Buxtehude – western crossing – Hamburg-Altona south – Hamburg Central Station.

Both variants envisaged a longitudinal gradient of 40 ‰ in order to cross the Elbe and connect to relevant transport hubs in Hamburg. However, this specification excluded freight transport, as its potential on the transport routes under consideration was estimated to be low.

The results of the study show that a western Elbe crossing could generate recognisable transport benefits, especially for local rail transport through new suburban rail services and additional stops. However, both variants achieve an inadequate cost-benefit ratio of 0.3 and 0.4 respectively, meaning that the high construction costs of a new western crossing cannot be justified.

Conclusion and recommendations

The construction of a western Elbe crossing cannot be recommended under current conditions. The long-distance and regional rail provision envisaged in the Deutschlandtakt target timetable is adequate to the demand forecast for the Hamburg hub. The analysed additional transport route, which does not focus on strengthening the major transport links, is not economically viable.

The expansions envisaged for the Hamburg hub in the Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan meet the currently known transport requirements for the time frame under consideration. An additional western Elbe crossing would bring no significant improvements that could justify the high investment costs.